NHL best bets: Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Game 2 odds, preview, prediction for Monday, 4/22

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Odds

Monday, April 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto's blue line looked completely outmatched in Game 1, and I think that is going to be a huge problem moving forward in this series. The Leafs also surrendered high-danger scoring chances at a high clip in the regular season, ranking 25th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Not only does this team struggle defensively at even strength, but the Maple Leafs also rank in the bottom 10 of the league in penalty minutes taken per game and penalty kill percentage. Subsequently, it's not shocking that goaltender Ilya Samsonov has struggled behind that poor defense.

Through 40 starts this season, Samsonov possesses a .890 SV% and a 3.13 GAA. While I blame his defense more than him for Game 1, he still only stopped 19 of the 23 pucks he saw — a fade-worthy .826 SV%.

Through 11 career outings against Boston, Samsonov is now 1-6-2 with a mere .893 SV%.

Boston Bruins

Boston took advantage of Toronto's poor defense in Game 1 and a similar result is likely in store on Monday. This season, the Bruins ranked in the top half of the league in goals scored per game, power play percentage and shooting percentage.

Based on the underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as the Bruins also rank in the top half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Meanwhile, Boston is also strong defensively.

Suppressing high-danger scoring chances at a high level, the Bruins rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60. Backing up this talented blue line is the best goaltending tandem in hockey — Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman.

Along with most of you reading this, I was shocked that Jim Montgomery went with Swayman in Game 1, but it certainly was the right choice as he stopped 35-of-36 shots for a commanding .972 SV%. While Boston has not officially made a decision regarding the goaltender for Game 2, there is no way Montgomery can pull Swayman out of the crease following that performance.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

Betting Pick & Prediction

Dating back to the regular season, Swayman has allowed two or fewer goals in four of his past five starts, posting a .933 SV% and 1.79 GAA over that stretch. That success is likely to continue against Toronto, a team he has dominated with a 5-0 record, a .964 SV% and a 1.17 GAA over five meetings.

Boston's average margin of victory over those five games is 2.4. Zooming out, I think the Leafs are in trouble in this series because of that blue line.

If Toronto is allowing four-to-five goals, can it make that up offensively? The Leafs have the talent to do so, but scoring four or more goals on Swayman (or Ullmark) is going to be a tough ask.

We know what the Bruins are going to get from David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, but if Jake DeBrusk continues to play like he did in Game 1, then Toronto is likely to face a first-round exit.

Pick: Bruins -1.5 (+185 at Caesars | Play to +175)