Does the Vikings' meeting with Texas DT provide clue about their draft plans?

Per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, the Minnesota Vikings are hosting Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II on a top-30 visit on Monday. Does this mean they won't draft a quarterback?

The Vikings have the 11th overall pick in the draft and recently acquired the 23rd pick from the Houston Texans. They may be loading up on draft capital to move up and find a potential replacement for QB Kirk Cousins. The four-time Pro Bowler signed a four-year, $180M deal with the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. 

However, ESPN's Kevin Seifert noted the Vikings may stand pat and roll with QB Sam Darnold — who signed a one-year, $10M deal in free agency — next season. 

"On the one hand, they've made deep plans to evaluate the top prospects via private workouts and/or visits, and they formed the outlines of a structure focused on developing a rookie quarterback," wrote Seifert. "On the other, they're preparing for the possibility of riding with offseason free-agent addition Darnold in 2024 and then regrouping with either a quarterback drafted with a lower pick or perhaps a look ahead to the 2025 class."

Trading up for a QB is costly. In his latest mock draft, Max Chadwick of Pro Football Focus has Minnesota dealing three picks (including two first-rounders) to the Los Angeles Chargers to take Michigan's J.J. McCarthy with the fifth overall pick.

More importantly, first-round trades for QBs have a low hit rate. Per Nick Kosmider of The Athletic, 28 QBs have been acquired via a first-round trade since 1994. Seventeen of these passers failed to win a playoff game, and only nine signed an extension with the team that drafted them. 

In 2023, PFF gave Murphy a 91.1 grade, the second-best at his position. Still, QB is the Vikings' biggest need.  

Last season, Minnesota went 3-6 after Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8 against the Packers. Darnold — the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft — has recorded a below-average 78.3 passer rating in six seasons.

If they want to avoid unloading valuable draft capital, the Vikings could select a QB with the 11th pick, perhaps 2023 Heisman finalists Bo Nix (Oregon) or Michael Penix Jr. (Washington).